Category: Passport

This is an online version of the monthly newsletter of the World Affairs Council of the Monterey Bay Area (WACMB). You may click here to see other online issues or click here to reach the archive of recent issues in PDF format.

Luncheon Meeting – Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Topic: North Korea’s Weapons of Mass Destruction

Speaker: Melissa Hanham

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS)

Overview

North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests are grabbing headlines and sending shockwaves throughout the world. The Olympics yielded an opportunity for détente, but tensions remain high.

Our guest, Melissa Hanham, will discuss how analysts right here in Monterey gather information about North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and make assessments of their true capabilities. Prepare to see satellite imagery and ground photos of North Korea in a whole new light.

Melissa Hanham is a Senior Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, as well as the Mixed-Methods, Evaluation, Training and Analysis Lab. She studies East Asian security and the proliferation of WMD, with particular focus on North Korean WMD procurement and proliferation networks and China’s nuclear posture. She also studies Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese nuclear exports as well as East and South-east Asian export control systems and proliferation finance activities. Ms. Hanham teaches “Geospatial Tools for Nonproliferation Analysis” at the Middlebury Institute and is a regular contributor to Arms Control Wonk.

Hanham earned her MA in International Security Policy and East Asia at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs and her BA in International Studies from Johns Hopkins University. She has been teaching at the Middlebury Institute since 2012.

Agenda

Tuesday, March 27, 2018
11:30 am: Registration begins
11:50 am: Luncheon
1:00 – 2:00 pm: Program

Location

Rancho Canada, Carmel Valley Road

Luncheon Menu

• Hearts of Romaine salad with walnuts, raspberry vinaigrette
• Chicken Fettuccini Alfredo
• Fresh rolls and butter
• Chef’s choice dessert
• Vegetarian option: pasta with Marinara sauce

Special Notice
Luncheon Price Increase

Due to rising labor and food costs, the price of our luncheons at Rancho
Canada increased to $29 for members and stays at $35 for guests.

This is the first increase in many years.

The new payment deadline is 7 days in advance.

Click here to open or download the luncheon reservation form in PDF format.

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January Program Report

Summary of “Worlds Fall Apart: The Implosion of the Middle East”

Speaker: Prof. James Russell, Naval Postgraduate School
Date: January 25, 2018

Russell describes the gradual disintegration of a regional political order of family elites, sustained for a generation by military and security services. Four failed states – Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen – have been plagued for years by violent armed struggles involving outside proxies trying to influence the outcomes. The traditional outside powers exercising dominance in the 20th century are giving way to regional rivalries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf States. As the Arab Spring fades, all of these are now autocracies dependent on security sector arrangements.

What are the wars about? Struggle for political authority in states previously ruled by authoritarians where dissent was stifled by force and intimidation. There was no way to peacefully settle arguments about individual identity, state identity, relationship of the individual to the state, role of religion in the above matters, and over basic governing authority.

The results? Displaced populations, death and hardship, shattered economies and infrastructure add to the humanitarian catastrophe that will shape the landscape indefinitely. Whatever the eventual outcomes of these tragic conflicts, the Middle East will lag behind in human, economic social and political development.

U.S. policy choices? Ties to authoritarian regimes through arms sales, training, military bases and exercises limit flexibility. These same authoritarian regimes prevent peaceful, inclusive political liberalization that only helps fuel jihadi extremists. We endorse participative, open government; groups supported by the countries of the Gulf states mostly favor sharia law. “We cannot re-engineer the region’s politics.” Moreover, given the transformation of the energy sector and the rise of Asia, the Middle East is of decreasing strategic importance.

by Philip Morgan

This is an online version of the monthly newsletter of the World Affairs Council of the Monterey Bay Area (WACMB). You may click here to see other online issues or click here to reach the archive of recent issues in PDF format.

Upcoming Luncheon Meeting

Challenges to South Africa’s Democracy

Speaker: E. Philip Morgan, Emeritus Professor

Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (MIIS)

Overview

After a short honeymoon, the promise of President Nelson Mandela’s 1990s legacy has suffered many slings and arrows in the intervening twenty years. The remarkably peaceful transition from the minority rule of the apartheid state to open, universal suffrage, competitive elections, and guaranteed human rights was seen as a great achievement the world over and a beacon to the rest of the African continent. However, a combination of global and internal forces challenged the new, liberal government almost immediately upon ratification of a new constitution in 1996.

The ruling African National Congress party has maintained its collective participatory decision making at many levels. It still has legitimacy as the party that delivered majority rule and discouraged ethnic factions from be-coming breakaway parties. But the increasing incidences of unaddressed corruption have been undermining these virtues in recent years. These events have affected confidence in the national economy; growth is barely discernible. The judicial system is robust to this day, but if criminal behavior on the part of people in high places is not prosecuted, the public sees impunity. When this gap is filled it is usually by the media. South Africa has a free press but has been threatened in recent years by the cur-rent government. So the question Professor Morgan will attempt to answer is: “Will South African leadership meet the challenges to democracy?” This is a transition year, national elections occur in 2019.

Professor Morgan is the former Dean of the Graduate School of International Policy Studies at MIIS. While a professor of politics, public administration and development throughout his career, he has also worked with The World Bank, USAID, and UNDP on diagnostic studies, technical assistance and training. He has lived and worked extensively in both the French and English-speaking countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a long-term commitment to the countries of Southern Africa. Philip Morgan earned his PhD. in Political Science at Syracuse University.

Agenda

Tuesday, February 27, 2018
11:30 am: Registration begins
11:50 am: Luncheon
1:00 – 2:00 pm: Program

Location

Rancho Canada, Carmel Valley Road

Luncheon Menu

• Caesar Salad
• Oven Roasted Salmon with Béarnaise Sauce
• Rice and Vegetables
• Fresh Rolls and Butter
• Chef’s Choice Dessert
• (Vegetarian option: Pasta Primavera tossed in pesto olive oil with parmesan cheese)

Click here to open or download the luncheon reservation form in PDF format.

Special Notice
Luncheon Price Increase
Starting This Month

Due to rising labor and food costs, the price of our luncheons at Rancho
Canada increased to $29 for members and stays at $35 for guests.

This is the first increase in many years.

The new payment deadline is 7 days in advance.

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December Program Report

Meteorology, Oceanography and National Security

Speaker: Dr. Jim Hansen

The World Affairs Council was pleased to host Dr. Jim Hansen, head of the Naval Research Lab (NRL) in Monterey, during our December luncheon. Dr. Hansen spoke on what the NRL and the co-located Fleet Numerical Center do with regard to “Meteorology, Oceanography and National Security.” In a nutshell, Fleet Numerical is in charge of daily forecasting for the US Navy world-wide, while the NRL is the Navy’s “corporate laboratory” concentrating on big picture basic research.

As an example, a warmer future includes numerous outcomes, including more cyclones, so how might the Navy respond? What types of ships and equipment would likely be needed given those changed conditions in the decades ahead?

Dr. Hansen gave numerous examples of the types of problems that researchers at the NRL deal with, including: emergent large dust storms bearing down on the fleet, night time ice flows that can seriously harm ships if not accounted for, tropical cyclones that strike at night and are thus not visible, pirate risk analysis, major drug running patterns and interdiction that the Navy is called on to deal with, and even the proper spacing of submarines for maximum effect and minimum accidents.

Hansen concluded that “science is easy, people are hard.” That is, the NRL’s major task is to make science user friendly, particularly when it comes to uncertainty. There are lots of captains and admirals who have done things a certain way for years and need to be convinced that the NRL’s science often shows a better path forward to solving fleet problems.

by Glenn E. Robinson